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and the role of models in trading oors Academics take models much more seriously And, equally important, they are truthful in their Gnosticism: not only do they tirelessly proclaim the gospels, they in fact passionately believe in the theoretical God and its infallibility Pros (including many quants), on the other hand, tend to take models much more lightly, almost unrespectfully so While not exactly atheists (quants, particularly), they don t bow to the Theoretical God with nearly the same ardor as the cultish professors Of course, banks and hedge funds do employ models, sometimes blindly so But it seems also true that on occasions the perceived embracement of mathematical toys by nancial players may be an act of convenient self-serving, either as means to look more sophisticated to the outside world, excuses to take more risk, or as alibis to justify possible bad news (much more on this in 6).

applications that provide a current vehicle location, a digital map and perhaps directions or route guidance A great many of these systems use GPS to initially determine the position of a vehicle As we have seen, GPS has become the most extensively used positioning and navigation tool in the world GPS provides civilian users with an instant (realtime) absolute horizontal positional accuracy of approximately 10 metres, however, as described in 2, the US Department of Defense reserves the right to switch on S/A, an intentional dithering of the GPS timing signal Under such circumstances errors at the level of 100 metres can be expected (corresponding to the level of accuracy when S/A was last switched on) This level of positional accuracy is insuf cient to ensure that a vehicle s location will correspond to the digitally mapped road on which the vehicle is travelling.

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As noted in 2, developing navigational algorithms to deal with the potential S/A problem will also mitigate unintentional problems with satellite clock behaviour A number of methods have been successfully developed to signi cantly improve GPS accuracy, the most notable being differential GPS (DGPS) In DGPS two receivers work together, one knows its exact position, monitors the errors in its position as provided by GPS, and transmits corrections for these errors to the other receiver Real-time DGPS can improve positional accuracy down to 1 to 5 m However, the use of real-time DGPS in a moving vehicle requires additional data in the form of pseudorange corrections, ie computed errors in the satellite range measurements Continuous reception of terrestrial radio transmissions or communication satellite broadcast is required to receive these corrections.

Often data can be combined from multiple sources integrating GPS with other navigational tools, attitude sensors such as the gyrocompass, vehicle odometer, ux gate compass and other dead reckoning methods This use of multiple data sources again helps to correct for the error (noise) on the GPS position output Multiple sensor data integration algorithms for vehicles are discussed by Mattos [1993] Dead reckoning produces the observed track by adding together the position vectors received from the sensor processor [Collier, 1990] The fact that vehicles are generally constrained to a nite network of roads provides computer algorithms with digital information that can be used to correlate the computed vehicle location with the road network This is known as map-matching Many methods have been devised for map matching [Scott, 1994; Mallet and Aubry, 1995].

The models used inside nancial institutions should be a concern for the rest of us, given the very immediate impact that they can have But don t always take at face value pros self-proclaimed faithfulness in the analytical commandments No one, on the other hand, could ever accuse ivory tower residents of fake zealotry Inside trading oors, models are much more likely to be treated as experimental toys than as evangelical doctrine The goal is not to win a Nobel Prize or to earn the awe of the academic community (at least not primarily), but to allow traders and salespersons to be able to start a conversation with the market and with clients about what the value of a nancial product should be, roughly A model can be used for something as simple as a communicating tool, say quoting the price of an option in terms of volatility.

Our research has developed and tested an algorithm that utilizes GPS for the initial vehicle position and geometric information, computed from the digital road network itself, as the only other source of data for map-matching..

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